Rate Lock Advisory

Tuesday, June 25th

Tuesday’s bond market has opened in negative following a little stronger than predicted economic news. Stocks are mixed with the Dow down 152 points and the Nasdaq up 126 points. The bond market is currently down 4/32 (4.24%), but this morning’s mortgage rates should still be close to Monday’s early pricing.



30 yr - 4.24%







Mortgage Rate Trend

Trailing 90 Days - National Average

  • 30 Year Fixed
  • 15 Year Fixed
  • 5/1 ARM

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock



Consumer Confidence Index

June’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) was posted at 10:00 AM ET this morning, giving us a sign of consumer willingness to spend. The Conference Board announced a reading of 100.4 that was a decline from May’s revised 101.3, but higher than the 100.0 that analysts were expecting to see. The downward revision to May’s reading alters the significance of June’s reading. Since we didn’t get a decline of 2 points from May’s revised reading, we have to label the report unfavorable for bonds and mortgage rates.



Fed Talk

There is also a speech later today by Fed Governor Lisa Cook that we will be watching. She will be speaking at an Economic Club of New York luncheon at noon ET. The topic is listed as Economic Policy, meaning market participants will be listening for any surprises or thoughts on what the Fed’s next move is and when it may happen. If there is a reaction to what she says, it will come during midday or early afternoon trading.



New Home Sales

We have a minor economic report set for release tomorrow morning and an afternoon event that has the potential to cause a slight change in mortgage rates. May's New Home Sales report will be posted at 10:00 AM ET tomorrow. It helps measure housing sector strength by tracking sales of newly constructed homes. It is the sister release to last week's Existing Home Sales report but covers a much smaller portion of sales. This version is expected to show an increase in sales, although it will likely not have much of an impact on mortgage rates because this data covers such a small percentage of the housing sector.



Treasury Auctions (5,7,10,20,30 year)

Tomorrow also has a 5-year Treasury Note auction taking place with results expected to be announced at 1:00 PM ET. If the sale draws strong interest from investors, we may see bonds improve during midafternoon trading, possibly leading to a slight improvement in rates. However, a lackluster demand may move mortgage rates a bit higher before the end of the day.

Float / Lock Recommendation

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Norcal Capital Group, Inc

1369 El Camino Real
Millbrae, CA 94030